Tesla’s Fourth Quarterly Deliveries: What to Expect and the Market Impact
Tesla, a leading player in the electric vehicle market, is gearing up to release its fourth-quarter delivery numbers, a crucial metric for the company’s performance. As Tesla aims to recover from a somewhat disappointing third quarter, the upcoming report will also determine its standing in the competition for the title of the world’s largest maker of battery electric vehicles.
Anticipated Deliveries and Market Expectations:
Wall Street analysts are projecting Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries to fall within the range of 475,000 to 480,000 units. This would surpass the record set in the second quarter of 2023 when 466,000 units were delivered. A delivery number above 475,000 is seen as favorable for the company’s stock.
Market Volatility Following Previous Reports:
The aftermath of Tesla’s delivery reports often results in notable volatility in its stock prices. Over the last eight reports, shares have exhibited an average movement of about 7%, either upwards or downwards. The stock has experienced three declines and five increases during this period.
Historical Trends and Market Reaction:
Examining historical trends, the most significant rise occurred after the fourth quarter of 2021 delivery report, with shares surging almost 14%. Conversely, the most considerable drop followed the fourth quarter of 2022 deliveries, resulting in a decline of more than 12%. While the sample size is limited, recent trends suggest that the stock price reaction to delivery reports aligns with the overall stock change for the month leading up to the deliveries.
Current Market Scenario:
As of the latest data, Tesla shares have seen a modest 2% increase over the past month. While this aligns with the historical pattern indicating a positive impact on Tesla stock, the 2% move is the smallest leading into the report among the last eight quarters.
Tesla’s Performance in Recent Years:
In 2023, Tesla’s stock recorded a remarkable 102% increase, marking a substantial recovery from the 65% decline witnessed in 2022. In comparison, the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 posted gains of around 43% and 24%, respectively. The dip in 2022 was only the second time Tesla stock fell in a calendar year since its initial public offering (IPO) in 2010. Notably, Tesla’s impressive 740% gain in 2020 coincided with the introduction of the Model Y, which is expected to conclude 2023 as the best-selling car globally.
Tesla’s fourth-quarter delivery report is eagerly awaited by investors and industry observers alike. The anticipated figures, along with the historical market reactions, will likely impact Tesla’s stock performance. As the electric vehicle market continues to evolve, Tesla’s ability to maintain its leadership position and deliver robust results will be closely monitored in the coming quarters.
