The response of the United States to the drone attack in Jordan, resulting in the deaths and injuries of US service members, is anticipated to be more forceful than previous retaliatory actions in Iraq and Syria, as conveyed by officials to CNN. However, both the Pentagon and the White House are exercising caution in disclosing the administration’s strategies.
President Joe Biden faces mounting pressure to devise a response that effectively halts these attacks. Since October, Iran-backed militants have targeted US military installations in Iraq and Syria over 160 times. Some Republican lawmakers advocate for direct strikes within Iran as a means to convey a clear message.
Yet, the primary challenge confronting the Biden administration is determining a response to the drone strike, which stands as the deadliest assault on US forces in the region since the bombing at Abbey Gate claimed 13 US service members’ lives during the closing stages of the Afghanistan withdrawal. The task is to address the attack without inciting a regional conflict.
In recent months, the US has executed several strikes targeting weapons depots of Iranian proxies in Iraq and Syria. However, these actions have failed to deter the militants, who have carried out 165 attacks, resulting in over 120 US service members sustaining injuries across the region since October.
Retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling emphasized that the deaths of US service members have unmistakably crossed the president’s threshold, leading officials and analysts to anticipate a more vigorous response that may extend beyond a single country or day. Nevertheless, officials have indicated that a strike within Iran is improbable.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken remarked that the Middle East’s current environment is as precarious as it has been since at least 1973, if not earlier. He added that the US response could be multifaceted, unfolding in stages and sustained over time.
The Biden administration may opt to target the militant groups in Iraq, Syria, or both nations, possibly also aiming at the leadership of regional militias. An alternative option could involve an offensive cyberattack, as suggested by officials. To maintain an element of surprise in the response, US officials have refrained from divulging specific details about the drone’s origin or the perpetrators behind it, although they have mentioned the apparent involvement of the Iranian proxy group Kataib Hezbollah.
Nevertheless, officials have emphasized that striking Iran remains one of the least probable options. Biden administration officials have reiterated that the US does not seek war with Iran, recognizing that such a move could escalate tensions in the Middle East.
While Iran is held ultimately responsible for the attacks due to its financial and military support for proxy groups, there are no indications yet that Iran explicitly directed the drone attack or intended it as a deliberate escalation against the US, according to multiple sources.
The attack shares similarities with previous strikes by Iran-backed militants, with the exception being its success in hitting a housing container at the US base, Tower 22, on a Sunday when service members were vulnerable. The drone’s low altitude may have aided in evading the base’s air defenses, causing confusion and potentially delaying a response.
While the US may seek to de-escalate through proportionate and limited retaliatory strikes, such actions could be perceived as weakness by Iran and its proxies. Jon Alterman, the Middle East Program director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, warned that deliberate and proportionate responses could inadvertently encourage adversaries to test boundaries further.
Over the years, Iran has invested in its regional proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and militant groups in Iraq and Syria, collectively known as the “axis of resistance.” Tehran has provided these proxies with financial support, weapons, training, and supplies to expand its influence in the Middle East and pressure the US to disengage from the region.
Amid escalating tensions, Iran has witnessed anti-US and anti-Israel sentiments sweeping across the Middle East following the Israel-Hamas conflict. Furthermore, Iran has strengthened its ties with Russia and China while facing calls from Iraqi officials to end the US military presence in their country.
As the situation unfolds, it becomes increasingly evident that maintaining stability in the region poses a significant challenge, with the potential for further escalation if careful diplomacy and strategic responses are not employed.
